ETH's Max Pain Sits 15% Below Spot, But the Real Magnet Is 2260

ETH's 95h-to-expiry (Nov 4) contract shows a textbook max-pain-distance extreme: spot $2239.24 sits 15.1% above the 1900 max pain strike. But that number is close to meaningless here — every strike below 2240 shows zero call and put OI, so max pain is being computed off an empty chain. The chain's actual activity, and the active pin magnet per pinAnalytics, is the 2260 call wall (0.93% from spot, 160 contracts), where dealers hold the only concentrated negative gamma in the expiry (-0.537B of the -1.52B total GEX). Strikes 2280, 2300 and 2320 round out the rest, all negative.
Compare this to the Nov 1 expiry (23h out), where max pain and gamma flip actually agree: max pain 2260 (0.93% away) lines up with a gamma flip at 2284.25 and a positive gexTotal of +43.82 — the opposite dealer posture from Nov 4's negative total.
| Expiry | DTE | Max Pain | Distance | Active Magnet | GEX Total | Gamma Flip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 | 23h | 2260 | 0.93% | maxPain @2260 | +43.82 | 2284.25 |
| Nov 4 | 95h | 1900 | -15.15% | maxGex @2260 | -1.52 | null |
Spot tape is strong-sell (34.3% buy share), funding is bearish at -10.67% annualized.