ETH Cleared Its Gamma Flip, But Dealer Gamma Stayed Negative

ETH spot ($2491.73) trades above the Sep 4 weekly gamma flip ($2426.52) and above the monthly flip ($2257.12) too. Normally that crossing marks dealers turning net long gamma — a stabilizing shift that dampens moves. Instead weekly gexTotal is -$88.8M and monthly is -$91.9M, so the composite regime model reads the setup as TRANSITIONAL/UNSTABLE: gamma flip and gexTotal disagree, which the model treats as unresolved rather than confirmed.

The reason is structural, not noise. Positive gamma is stacked below the flip (2300-2400, put-heavy), but a sharply negative pocket sits exactly where spot trades — the 2500/2550/2600 call walls carry -41.5M/-31.7M/-23.6M GEX, holding 58.8% of the weekly book's |gex| in just three strikes versus 32.7% concentration at the monthly. Spot is wedged between the 2480 and 2500 strikes, inside that negative zone rather than clear of it.

Context: 1h spot tape is buy-heavy (61% buy share) even as price pushes away from the 2380 max pain, while 4h perp OI is down 3.4% on bullish funding (+4.6% annualized) — deleveraging into strength, not fresh build. The 2500 strike (max-gex, 0.3% from spot) is the nearest pin candidate.